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April 2026 Monthly

March 28, 2026
Wars rarely stay where they start. The Israeli and American military campaign against Iran—the most direct confrontation with Tehran in decades—has sent shockwaves well beyond the Middle East. The fog of war obscures the tactical picture almost daily, but the economic transmission mechanisms are clear enough, and investors who mistake this for a r…
April 2026 Monthly April 2026 Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 28, 2026 Rating: 5
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The Dollar and Oil are Bid

March 27, 2026
The dollar and oil remain firm. The market has a had muted reaction to President Trump’s announcement late yesterday that it will extend its pledge not to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure for ten days (April 6). At the same time, reports indicate the US is considering sending more troops to the area. The logic of “escalation to de-escalate” con…
The Dollar and Oil are Bid The Dollar and Oil are Bid Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 27, 2026 Rating: 5
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Hope Wanes, USD Little Changed while Bonds and Stocks Weaken

March 26, 2026
The US dollar is trading in narrow trading ranges against the G10 currencies today, but the calm in the foreign exchange market belies stress in other parts of the capital markets. Equities and bonds have been sold. The hope that an end to the Middle East conflict has faltered amid the conflicting signals from the US, which is sending thousands of…
Hope Wanes, USD Little Changed while Bonds and Stocks Weaken Hope Wanes, USD Little Changed while Bonds and Stocks Weaken Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 26, 2026 Rating: 5
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Thoughts on the Dollar

March 25, 2026
The dollar's resilience since the war began is not a mystery, but it is being misread. The Dollar Index has appreciated roughly 1.8% this month alone, following a modest 0.65% gain in February after January's 1.35% slide. Against every G10 currency, the greenback has advanced since hostilities commenced. All but the Canadian dollar and ste…
Thoughts on the Dollar Thoughts on the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 25, 2026 Rating: 5
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Hope Lifts Stocks and Bonds

March 25, 2026
There continues to be hope in the capital and commodity markets that a US-Israel war on Iran can be brought to a conclusion soon. While news reports indicate that the US had drafted a 15-point peace plan that has been delivered to Iran via Pakistan, other reports indicate that US is sending more people and weapons to the region. Iran has reportedl…
Hope Lifts Stocks and Bonds Hope Lifts Stocks and Bonds Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 25, 2026 Rating: 5
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Yesterday's Optimism Turns More Guarded

March 24, 2026
The markets remain on edge. President Trump’s five-day hiatus announced yesterday is looked upon suspiciously. Much of what has been claimed seems to be part of the psych-operations associated with warfare, like initiating the war during negotiations. Many seem to share our sense that the five-day period will allow more US troops to enter the regi…
Yesterday's Optimism Turns More Guarded Yesterday's Optimism Turns More Guarded Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 24, 2026 Rating: 5
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Threat of Massive Escalation of the War Drags Financial Markets Lower, While Lifting the Greenback Threat of Massive Escalation of the War Drags Financial Markets Lower, While Lifting the Greenback Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 23, 2026 Rating: 5
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